<!DOCTYPE html><html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"><head><title>Nate Silver: What my gut says about the election</title><!--[if !mso]><!-- --><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"><!--<![endif]--><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1"><style type="text/css">#outlook a{padding:0}body{margin:0;padding:0;-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%;-ms-text-size-adjust:100%}table,td{border-collapse:collapse;mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0}img{border:0;height:auto;line-height:100%;outline:0;text-decoration:none;-ms-interpolation-mode:bicubic}p{display:block;margin:13px 0}p,ul{margin-top:0}@media (max-width:600px){body{padding:0 15px!important}}</style><!--[if mso]>
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<div style="display:none;font-size:1px;color:#fff;line-height:1px;max-height:0;max-width:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden">But don’t trust it, he writes in Times Opinion.</div><div><!--[if mso | IE]><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto" width="600" align="center"><tr><td><![endif]--><table width="100%" align="left" border="0" style="margin:0" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><tbody><tr><td id="EMAIL_CONTAINER" align="left" width="100%"><div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:15px 0 5px;text-align:center;width:100%" width="100%" align="center"><div style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:center;width:100%;padding-bottom:10px"><a title="View in browser" href="https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/810T5D0dtaerVgVlr6HQCg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRpAQmmP4Q0AWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9keW5hbWljL3JlbmRlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0xOTAmZW1jPWVkaXRfdWZuXzIwMjQxMDI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNzk0OSZpc1ZpZXdJbkJyb3dzZXI9dHJ1ZSZubD1mcm9tLXRoZS10aW1lcyZyZWdpX2lkPTIwODY3MjMxNiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE4MTUxMyZzZW5kSWQ9MTgxNTEzJnVyaT1ueXQ6Ly9uZXdzbGV0dGVyLzBkNzBmZDQ2LTU5MmEtNTkzMC05NTcyLTFhMmIyN2QzNWQ4NSZ1c2VyX2lkPTdiMGIyYTM4ZWQwZTg0OGZjMzMzZmQ4OTA4YjlkMGI2VwNueXRCCmcSpoQeZ-MMD5lSFXZhY25jYWJvYXJkQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~" class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#666;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;line-height:18px">View in browser</a><span style="color:#dcdcdc;margin:0 10px">|</span><a title="The New York Times" href="https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/KRjfm5Ua0VixWuDTGpXYmQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRpAQmmP0SwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTE5MCZlbWM9ZWRpdF91Zm5fMjAyNDEwMjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM3OTQ5Jm5sPWZyb20tdGhlLXRpbWVzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MjA4NjcyMzE2JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTgxNTEzJnVzZXJfaWQ9N2IwYjJhMzhlZDBlODQ4ZmMzMzNmZDg5MDhiOWQwYjZXA255dEIKZxKmhB5n4wwPmVIVdmFjbmNhYm9hcmRAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD" class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#666;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;line-height:18px">nytimes.com</a></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%"><tbody><tr aria-hidden="true"><td><span style="text-align:center;line-height:0;font-size:0"><table style="margin:0 auto" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" tabindex="-1" target="_blank" href="https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/XsPGnC12wqiiDF-ttXHLzQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRpAQmmP0R8aHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9ODU5ODcwJmxpPVVGTiZtPTdiMGIyYTM4ZWQwZTg0OGZjMzMzZmQ4OTA4YjlkMGI2JnA9VUZOXzIwMjQxMDI3JnN0cGU9ZGVmYXVsdFcDbnl0QgpnEqaEHmfjDA-ZUhV2YWNuY2Fib2FyZEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~" class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline"><img alt="Ad" src="https://liveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com/imp?s=859870&li=UFN&m=7b0b2a38ed0e848fc333fd8908b9d0b6&p=UFN_20241027&stpe=default" width="600" style="width:100%;max-width:600px"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></span></td></tr><tr><td height="10"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%"><tbody><tr><td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc"></td></tr><tr><td class="css-c5n1m4" style="padding:19px 0 20px;width:100%;text-align:center" width="100%" align="center"><div style="margin-bottom:15px"><a title="From The Times" class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline"><img src="https://static.nytimes.com/email-images/Review-WMK%402x.png" alt="From The Times" class="css-p8oerp" style="width:300px" width="300"></a></div><p style="width:100%;margin-bottom:0;font:12px/12px georgia,serif">October 27, 2024</p></td></tr><tr><td style="border-bottom:1px solid #dcdcdc"></td></tr><tr><td height="20"></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px"><span>Nate Silver has a gut feeling about who will win the presidential election. But he doesn’t think you should put any value on anyone’s gut — including his, he writes in Times Opinion.</span></p><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:15px"></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0;padding-bottom:25px;border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:20px" class="css-11kh5w9"><table style="width:100%"><tbody><tr><td class="css-60p5qj" style="display:inline-block;width:291px;max-width:291px;vertical-align:top" width="291" valign="top"><a href="https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/dsVltlyOd71-z-ygVvqQyQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRpAQmmP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8xMC8yMy9vcGluaW9uL2VsZWN0aW9uLXBvbGxzLXJlc3VsdHMtdHJ1bXAtaGFycmlzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTkwJmVtYz1lZGl0X3Vmbl8yMDI0MTAyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzc5NDkmbmw9ZnJvbS10aGUtdGltZXMmcmVnaV9pZD0yMDg2NzIzMTYmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xODE1MTMmdXNlcl9pZD03YjBiMmEzOGVkMGU4NDhmYzMzM2ZkODkwOGI5ZDBiNlcDbnl0QgpnEqaEHmfjDA-ZUhV2YWNuY2Fib2FyZEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~" class="css-sdwaa1" style="-webkit-text-decoration:underline;color:#000;text-decoration:none;display:block"><img style="width:291px;box-sizing:border-box;vertical-align:top" class="css-7y77sk" src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/25/opinion/23silver2-image/23silver2-image-square640.jpg" alt="A photo illustration with Donald Trump, shaded red, and Kamala Harris, shaded blue. 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